2008년 10월 16일 NYT 워렌 버핏 기고문

2008년 10월 16일
NYT
워렌 버핏 기고문

 

 

 

NYT 워렌 버핏 기고문 원문

Opinion | Buy American. I Am. (Published 2008)

 

• 간단한 규칙이 내 매수를 좌우합니다.
  
  
•  ‘다른 사람들이 탐욕을 부릴 때 두려워하고, 다른 사람들이 두려워할 때는 탐욕스러워져라’. 
  
  
• 그리고 확실히 두려움은 이제 널리 퍼져서 노련한 투자자조차도 사로잡고 있습니다. 
• 확실히 투자자는 레버리지가 높은 기업이나 경쟁력이 약한 사업에 대해 조심하는 것이 옳습니다. 
• 그러나 많은 건전한 미국 기업의 장기적 번영에 대한 두려움은 말이 되지 않습니다. 
• 이러한 기업은 항상 그래왔듯이 실제로 수익에 차질을 겪을 것입니다. 
• 그러나 대부분의 대기업은 5년, 10년, 20년 후에 새로운 이익 기록을 세울 것입니다.
  
  
• 한 가지 분명히 말씀드리겠습니다.
• 저는 주식 시장의 단기적 움직임을 예측할 수없습니다.
•  저는 주식이 한 달 또는 1년 후에 더 높을지 낮을지에 대한 아무런 생각도 없습니다.
  
  
• 그러나 시장은 심리나 경제가 돌아서기 훨씬 전에, 아마도 실질적으로 더 높게 움직일 가능성이 높습니다. 그러니 울새(robin)를 기다린다면 봄은 지나갈 것입니다

 

반응형

 

It's time to reread Warren Buffett's op-ed he wrote during the crisis

 

Late Monday, North Korea fired a missile that flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean. It was an act of aggression that triggered volatility in the financial markets.

Historically, threats from North Korea have been nothing to worry about. In fact, Goldman Sachs analysts once said: “For decades, complacency has been the ‘right trade’ when it comes to North Korea.”

What if this time around, things were to escalate into a prolonged, violent military conflict? With stock prices near all-time highs, valuations stretched, and controversy crippling the White House from passing business-friendly legislation, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the market sell off in a big way.

With these risks in mind, it’s worth considering how Warren Buffett, who turned 87 years old on Wednesday, thinks about market turmoil.

We remember an incredibly prescient piece Buffett wrote in fall of 2008.

“I’ve been buying”

Over the span of his legendary career in investing, Buffett has said a lot of brilliant things. But during the darkest, most hopeless moments of the financial crisis, Buffett wrote an op-ed for The New York Times that was particularly timely.

“The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad,” Buffett said in the piece dated October 16, 2008. “Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So … I’ve been buying American stocks.”

Just the day before, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell a breathtaking 733 points or 7.9%. This was only a month after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was saved by Bank of America, and AIG secured an $85 billion bailout package.


To be clear, Buffett never suggested the stock market had hit rock-bottom. He only argued the market would be higher in years to come.

“I can’t predict the shortterm movements of the stock market,” he said. “I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”

Indeed, the Dow would fall from 9,000 that day to 6,600 in March 2009 before booming to the near-18,000 level it is at today. In other words, the Dow has doubled.

It’s an oped this author has personally quoted over and over and over and over and over again whenever the market had appeared to be reacting to bad news, which is often.

 

 

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